Abstract:Due to a lack of an external reference during days the navigation constellation runs autonomously without ground support,the results of autonomous orbit determination cannot be effectively assessed. In order to resolve this problem, this paper presents the assessment of the results of autonomous orbit determination based on Bayesian theory. The method adequately takes the prior information of orbit-determination error into consideration and uses it to provide position reference. To solve the problem that on autonomous orbit determination issues there are no direct observations of the orbit-determination error, we advise using the trace of the covariance matrix of the Kalman filter as observation information for orbit-determination error. To prove the method, a simulation of the autonomous orbit determination progress is conducted.The results of the simulation show that, for a single satellite, the error of the estimated is controlled within 0.5m, in 24 days. The feasibility of the method is confirmed by the result. Using this method can provide support for autonomous integrity monitoring of on-board autonomous operation software.