A PREDICTING MODEL OF IONOSPHERIC BASED ON ARIMA(p,1,1)
Liu Jun 1) ; Chai Hongzhou 1,2) ; Liu Xiandong 1,3) ; and Chen Ke 1)
1)Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Information Engineer University, Zhengzhou 4500522)Naval Institute of Hydrographic Surveying and Charting, Tianjin 3000613)96151 Troops，Huangshan 245400
Abstract：Modeling point by point of the grid data of ionospheric released by IGS with ARIMA(p,1,1), the prediction results with linearity least variance prediction method (common prediction method) and correcting prediction method are compared. The experimental results show that accuracies of most points are higher with the correcting prediction method in a short time, but larger deviation will appear at the extreme point of VTEC. Common prediction method can reach a satisfied accuracy in a long time.
