Ionospheric TEC Prediction Based on Holt-Winters Models
Abstract Using 14 days’ ionospheric TEC grid data provided by IGS center with different longitude and latitude at quiet and active period, taking the former 8 days’ TEC value as sample data, the prediction models of ionospheric TEC are set up using Holt-Winters additive and multiplicative model respectively. Afterwards, the established models are used to forecast the latter 6 days’ TEC value. The experimental results show that the prediction results of the two models are approximately the same and match well with the observation data, whether in ionospheric quiet or active periods. However, the Holt-Winters additive model can better reflect the changing characteristics of ionospheric TEC.
Key words :
Holt-Winters
ionosphere
total electron content
time series
Cite this article:
XIE Shaofeng,CHEN Jun,HUANG Liangke et al. Ionospheric TEC Prediction Based on Holt-Winters Models[J]. jgg, 2017, 37(1): 72-76.
XIE Shaofeng,CHEN Jun,HUANG Liangke et al. Ionospheric TEC Prediction Based on Holt-Winters Models[J]. jgg, 2017, 37(1): 72-76.
URL:
http://www.jgg09.com/EN/ OR http://www.jgg09.com/EN/Y2017/V37/I1/72
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