APPLICATION OF COMBINATION METHOD IN IONOSPHERE TEC SHORT-TERM FORECAST
Zhao Chuanhua 1,2) ;Dang Yamin 1) ; and Bei Jinzhong 1)
1)Chinese Academy of Surveying and Mapping, Beijing 100830;2)Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266510
Abstract A new combination method based on the frequency spectrum analysis and the grey model is proposed to forecast the ionosphere TEC. First, the grey model is established based on the residuals calculated by the frequency spectrum analysis and then to calculate the next epochs’ residuals and add them to the forecast results from the frequency spectrum analysis. The results indicate that the forecast accuracy is about 0.53 TECU and the RMS error of forecast values is about 0.65 TECU. Forecast accuracy is related to longitude and latitude rather than the length of the used historical data. Compared with existing methods, this method is of higher accuracy with fewer data and has simplicity for promising application in ionosphere TEC short-term forecast.
Key words ：
combination method
frequency spectrum analysis
grey model
ionosphere TEC
shortterm forecast
Received: 01 January 1900
Corresponding Authors:
Zhao Chuanhua
Cite this article:
Zhao Chuanhua,Dang Yamin ,and Bei Jinzhong . APPLICATION OF COMBINATION METHOD IN IONOSPHERE TEC SHORT-TERM FORECAST[J]. , 2012, 32(3): 76-79.
Zhao Chuanhua,Dang Yamin ,and Bei Jinzhong . APPLICATION OF COMBINATION METHOD IN IONOSPHERE TEC SHORT-TERM FORECAST[J]. jgg, 2012, 32(3): 76-79.
URL:
http://www.jgg09.com/EN/ OR http://www.jgg09.com/EN/Y2012/V32/I3/76
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