APPLICATION OF COMBINATIONAL MODEL OF LEAST SQUARES EXTRAPOLATION AND ARIMA(P,1,0) IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF POLAR MOTION
Zhang Hao; Wang Qijie; Zhu Jianjun ;and Zhang Xiaohong
Department of Geomatics Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083
Abstract The necessity of the shortterm prediction of polar motion and the current common prediction approach are discussed. ARIMA(P,1,0) is used in prediction of stochastic components in polar motion before,non a combinational model of least squares extrapolation and ARIMA(P,1,0) is given to forecast the polar motion from one to five day in the future. Through accuracy analysis, the efficiency and superiority of this model is proved.
Key words ：
polar motion
short-term prediction
least squares extrapolation
ARIMA(P
0) model
accuracy improving
Received: 01 January 1900
Corresponding Authors:
Zhang Hao
Cite this article:
Zhang Hao,Wang Qijie,Zhu Jianjun et al. APPLICATION OF COMBINATIONAL MODEL OF LEAST SQUARES EXTRAPOLATION AND ARIMA(P,1,0) IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF POLAR MOTION[J]. , 2011, 31(3): 106-109.
Zhang Hao,Wang Qijie,Zhu Jianjun et al. APPLICATION OF COMBINATIONAL MODEL OF LEAST SQUARES EXTRAPOLATION AND ARIMA(P,1,0) IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF POLAR MOTION[J]. jgg, 2011, 31(3): 106-109.
URL:
http://www.jgg09.com/EN/ OR http://www.jgg09.com/EN/Y2011/V31/I3/106
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