WEI Erhu, WU Junjie, ZHANG Yunlong, LUO Yile, ZOU Xiancai, TIAN Xiaojing, LIU Jingnan
This paper uses the time series of the geocentric motion provided by the Center for Space Research at the University of Texas at Austin as experimental data. First, empirical mode decomposition(EMD) is applied to the data for noise reduction. Then, fast Fourier transform(FFT) and continuous wavelet transform(CWT) are utilized to perform frequency domain transformation, power spectrum analysis, and extraction of periodic terms. Finally, an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model and exponential smoothing method are employed to forecast the geocentric motion for the next 20 months. The results indicate that the amplitude and phase of the annual term extracted using FFT are quite close to previous studies on the geocentric motion. The ARIMA model provides better predictions for the Y-direction motion of the geocentric motion over the next 20 months, while exponential smoothing method offers more accurate predictions for the X and Z directions.
TANG Yu, SHI Junbo, HOU Cheng, GUO Jiming, ZOU Jingui
Based on 26 496 BDS monitoring sequences with various observation durations in 2023, we establish quantitative function expressions relating the availability rate, monitoring precision of BDS results to observation duration. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the availability rate of monitoring results and observation duration, with an average correlation coefficient of 0.73 for six monitoring stations. The monitoring precision in N,E,U directions exhibit significant negative correlations with observation duration, with correlation coefficients of-0.83,-0.90, and-0.77, respectively. To ensure high timeliness, high availability rate(>95%), and high precision(horizontal precision better than 3 mm, vertical precision better than 5 mm), an optimal observation duration of 3 hours is recommended.
Three missing data processing methods, namely zero padding, linear model fitting, and resampling, were proposed to evaluate the frequency stability of atomic clocks in presence of data interruption and date gap. A direct calculation method for calculating overlapping Hadamard variance was also proposed. Based on clock error simulation data, the influence of different processing methods on frequency stability calculation was compared and analyzed. The results show that when the data missing rates are below 1%, 10%, and 20%, the stability calculated by zero padding, linear model fitting, and resampling methods is relatively close to the true stability. Zero padding and linear model fitting methods are only suitable for situations with less missing data, while resampling methods have better applicability than the first two methods. Furthermore, the direct calculation method can accurately evaluate stability even when the data missing rate reaches 50%. In cases where there is a large amount of missing data, the original data can be directly used for stability evaluation. Finally, the frequency stability of the BDS-3 on-board clock with missing clock bias data was evaluated. It is shown that the stability of the rubidium clock and hydrogen clock were better than 2.12×10-14 and 2.15×10-15 at the sampling time of 10 000 seconds and one day, respectively, and was generally at the same level as GPS ⅢA rubidium clocks and Galileo hydrogen clocks.
CAO Jun, XUE Bing, YUAN Yunbin, DAI Zelin, WANG Yifan
This paper proposes a method that can calculate the integrity risk of RAIM under multiple fault conditions. This method is based on constructing a chi-square test statistic using least squares residuals for fault detection, and further calculates the integrity risk by searching for the worst case fault vector under multiple fault modes based on the probability distribution of the test statistic and positioning error. The actual experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively monitor the integrity risk of multiple faults, achieve risk alarms during periods of poor observation geometry, and ensure reliable user positioning. Under the integrity requirements of the aviation LPV-200 phase, the availability of user positioning results reached 99.47%.
Based on the observation data of ground-based GNSS network in Hubei province during 25 June to 9 July 2020 and in Henan province during 13 to 26 July 2021, the precipitable water vapor(PWV) are derived. Combined with hourly precipitation data of ground automatic weather stations, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of PWV and its influence on precipitation in “Violent Meiyu” in 2020 and Henan “7·20” extreme rainstorm in 2021. The results show that the regions with high PWV value above 65 mm have a good indication of the areas where rainstorms happen. PWV increases in a fluctuating tendency before the arrival of rainstorm, the precipitation intensity and PWV reach the maximum value almost at the same time. During the process of “7·20” extreme rainstorm in 2021, the water vapor is sufficient throughout Henan province, the indication of PWV high value for rainstorm is relatively weak. In general, PWV shows a trend of slow increase and fast decrease in “7·20” extreme rainstorm. Before the occurrence of precipitation, PWV fluctuates at a high level and grows slowly. When PWV rapidly decreases, precipitation stops. Furthermore, it is also revealed that PWV usually increases 1 to 2 hours before the occurrence of rainstorm both in 2020 and 2021, which is significant for rainstorm monitoring and weather forecasting.
This study analyzed data from vertical pendulum tiltmeters, water-tube tiltmeters, extensometers, borehole strainmeters, and gravimeters at three stations within 100 km of the epicenter prior to the MS6.8 Luding earthquake in Sichuan province. The results revealed that pre-earthquake observations from some instruments exceeded two times the mean square deviation, and the distance from the epicenter influenced the duration of the anomalies.
By utilizing the method of dominant azimuth of the geoelectric field, an analysis of the dominant azimuth anomaly changes and characteristics was conducted on the geoelectric field data within a 400 km range of the epicenter of the 2023 Jishishan MS6.2 earthquake. The results show that the earliest anomaly before the earthquake occurred at the Guyuan station, which is located at the intersection of the Haiyuan fault and the Liupanshan fault. During the period of the anomaly, the Jingtai station, located in the middle section of the Haiyuan fault, also showed a rapid and significant deflection of the azimuth. The max azimuth α changes at both stations deviated from the normal background value by about 45°, which is considered a medium to short-term anomaly. The last anomaly to appear was at the Dawu station, located in the Bayan Har block, where the azimuth angle α showed a rapid deflection and jump, deviating from the normal background value by about 90°, which is considered a short-term anomaly. The number of three abnormal stations meets the prediction index system of the geoelectric field dominant azimuth. The evolution of the anomaly shows that the anomalies have quasi-synchronous characteristics in terms of appearance, duration, and end time. In terms of the distance from the epicenter, Guyuan station is the farthest, while Jingtai and Dawu stations are closer to the earthquake epicenter. Before the earthquake, due to the internal compression of the plate, the areas where the three geoelectric field stations are located and the surrounding stress compression changes were intense. When rocks were subjected to pressure and fracture, the fracture structure of the rock mass led to significant changes in the dominant azimuth of the geoelectric field in succession. The subsequent end of the three geoelectric fields anomaly after the earthquake also indirectly reflected the process of the gradual recovery of the rock mass fracture structure after stress release, indicating that the data changes of the three stations can truly reflect the changes in the underground medium.
ZHOU Chen, LI Yongsheng, LI Junqiu, ZHANG Simeng, SHI Wei, LIU Zhangsheng
By selecting time and spatial scales suitable for regional characteristics and using accelerating moment release to predict the location of earthquakes, retrospective testing was conducted on 8 earthquakes with MS4.0 or higher in Heilongjiang province and adjacent areas since 2009. The results showed that 5 earthquakes observed accelerating moment release phenomenon before the earthquake, while in the other 3 were not observed. At the same time, before some earthquakes, it can be observed that there was a phenomenon of accelerated areas migrating towards the epicenter. This indicates that accelerating moment release has certain indicative significance for predicting the occurrence location of moderate earthquakes in Heilongjiang province and adjacent areas.
SUN Qiang, LI Guoyi, WANG Peng, ZHANG Zhengshuai, LI Cuiqin, LI Dongmei
This paper attempts to link the strength of regional crustal stress with its earthquake occurrence probability, and proposes a method to calculate regional earthquake occurrence probability based on apparent stress data, which mainly solves the following problems: 1) The singular value is calculated using multifractal theory, and the stress rich region, poor region and background region are revealed. 2) A new method of fitting singular value and b value is derived, and b value under the background of singular value are obtained, so that the strength of crustal stress and b value are unified. 3) A suitable method is designed to calculate the shear stress loading rate of the reference area, and then other shear stress loading rate value are calculated by using the specified formula. 4) When the lognormal model is used to calculate the probability of earthquake occurrence, the fixed integral is used to process the model parameters, and the error of shear stress loading rate is the main source of the uncertainty of the result. 5) Compared with the normal distribution model and the BPT model, it is found that the lognormal distribution model agrees well with the normal distribution model, but there is a big difference between the lognormal distribution model and the BPT model, which may be due to the different algorithms of each model. 6) According to the calculation and analysis, the areas with a higher probability of earthquake occurrence of magnitude 5 or above in the study region are located within the enclosed areas of Yiyuan-Linqu-Anqiu-Zhucheng-Yishui, Yishui-Wulian-Juxian-Yinan and Linqu-Changle in the north of the study area. The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in 10 years is up to 0.034, and the cumulative probability is up to 0.861. The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in 30 years is up to 0.097, and the cumulative probability is up to 0.87.The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in 50 years is up to 0.15, and the cumulative probability is up to 0.878.
AN Tailin, FENG Shaoying, DENG Xiaojuan, LI Qian, TIAN Yiming, HOU Lihua
In order to more clearly depict the fault distribution in the seismic profile of urban active fault detection, seismic attributes are extracted from the seismic data of urban active fault detection based on the theory and implement methods of variance body, coherence body, instantaneous phase and wave impedance inversion, and comprehensively analyze the application effects of various attributes, and use the attribute fusion method to superimpose display the seismic attributes. The results show that using seismic attribute analysis and attribute fusion can reduce the difficulty of fault identification, improve the accuracy of fault identification, and the fault distribution is more regular.
This article adopts the double-difference tomography method to obtain the three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure and seismic relocating results of the Wushan section in the Three Gorges reservoir, based on the travel time data of 2 319 earthquakes recorded by 49 stations from January 2008 to June 2020. The results show that earthquakes are mainly concentrated on the north bank of the Yangtze river, with a nearly EW oriented strip distribution, and are not more than 10 km away from the Yangtze river system. There are two obvious P-wave high-speed bodies concentrated mainly at the intersection of the Yangtze river and the faults in the research area. One is distributed in the area trapped by the Gaoqiao fault and the Zhoujiashan-Niukou fault, and the other is distributed in the area where the Wushan fault intersects with the Yangtze river. The distribution of high-speed bodies is consistent with the dip of nearby faults. The velocity cross-section shows that the high-speed zone extends to a depth of 12 km. The Wushan fault, Gaoqiao fault, and Zhoujiashan-Niukou fault serve as the main fracture channels for reservoir water infiltration.
MA Yifang, FAN Wenlan, YANG Yilin, YAN Rui, ZHOU Xiaohui
This study utilizes the environmental loading products derived from different data sources provided by GFZ and GGFC, to correct the atmospheric loading, non-tidal ocean loading and hydrological loading of 50 GNSS stations in Beijing and its surrounding areas. The RMS reduction rate of the GNSS coordinate time series after environmental loading corrections is used to evaluate the performance of different products. The results show that the impact of atmospheric loading is more significant than that of hydrological loading, and the impact of non-tidal ocean loading can be ignored. The RMS values of all the GNSS height time series except that of LNJZ station are reduced after the correction of atmospheric loading products provided by GFZ and GGFC, and the average RMS reduction rate is more than 15%, indicating that the impact of atmospheric loading on the vertical motion of GNSS stations in the study area is nonnegligible. The correction effect of different atmospheric loading products provided by GFZ and GGFC are similar, the correction effect of non-tidal ocean loading products derived from MPIOM provided by GFZ is better, and the correction effect of hydrological loading products derived from GLDAS provided by GGFC is better.
GUO Jianfang, LIU Zhe, GUO Jiao, WANG Xiaoyi, YIN Jiashi
The wavelet method is used to calculate the coherence spectrum of the ground resistivity and the theoretical value of surface strain Earth tide at Changli station during 1981 to 2020. The results show that the 12 h and 24 h period spectra of the calculated results are significantly correlated, with a frequency of about 1 to 4 times/month, each lasting about 2 to 3 d, but the time is irregular. The positive and negative correlations of each periodic component are chaotic and unstable in time domain. The results of daily value calculation mainly have two types of cycle components, one is the short cycle of 8 d, 10 d, 15 d and 30 d within 8 to 30 d, and the other is the longer half-year and annual cycle. The continuity of short-period components is poor, the frequency is about 3 to 5 times/year, and the positive and negative correlations are chaotic in the time domain. The correlation between the half-year and annual scales is relatively significant, the duration is more continuous and the change is relatively stable, and the annual cycle component appears longer than the half-year cycle. The correlation of annual cycle is the most stable and negative correlation, and the correlation of half-year cycle is slightly worse, with both positive and negative correlation. The daily wavelet coherence spectrum also shows the existence of long and short period gaps, which are related to the seismic conditions, mainly reflecting the stress field changes in the area and the modulation effect of far-field large earthquakes.
HOU Zuxing, YANG Chengsheng, DONG Jihong, CHEN Lidong, WANG Kun, ZHAO Ziyi
The surface deformation results in and around Longyao ground fissure, Hebei province from 2017-03 to 2022-10 were obtained based on StaMPS and SBAS-InSAR. The results show that the monitoring results of the two techniques are consistent, indicating that the results are reliable. The land subsidence around Julu county is serious, and a large scale subsidence area has been formed, with the maximum deformation rate exceeding-30 mm/a. The temporal results of extraction showed periodic changes, and were consistent with groundwater level and precipitation. The maximum deformation rate difference and the maximum shape variable difference between the two sides of the Longyao ground fissure are over 40 mm/a and over 200 mm respectively. The field investigation shows that the surface differential deformation caused by the ground fissure has a great impact on the local area.
ZHAO Bo, JI Lingyun, HAO Ming, QIU Jiangtao, ZHU Liangyu, JIANG Fengyun, LIU Lei
Using precise leveling measurement data and a modified dip-slip displacement model, we systematic analyze the vertical movement characteristics of each section of the northern margin fault of western Qinling mountains. The results show that the northern margin fault of western Qinling mountains is undergoing a composite deformation mechanism of left-lateral strike-slip and thrust compression, and the activity varies among different sections. The vertical dip-slip rate increase from 0.24 mm/a in the western section to a maximum of 2.31 mm/a in the eastern section, and then decrease to 1.51 mm/a. The inverted locking depths are consistent with the relocation depths of small earthquakes, which indicates that there are different locking states in each section. Combining seismic activity, the Tianshui-Baoji section has the highest earthquake risk.
LI Chuanjin, JIAN Xiang, WANG Qiang, DING Haodong, ZHENG Tao
At 10 measurement points along the same survey line, observations were conducted using various array types such as double circular array, cross shaped array, and linear array. Then, we extracted dispersion curves, plotted apparent S-wave velocity profiles. The study obtained the following two results. Firstly, the apparent S-wave velocity profiles obtained from cross shaped array are basically consistent with those obtained from double circular array, and the delineated interfaces of geological layers are also generally consistent, but there are differences in the positions of velocity anomaly bodies delineated by the two types of arrays. Secondly, there are significant differences between the apparent S-wave velocity profiles of the linear array and the double circular array, and there are significant differences in the apparent S-wave velocity profiles obtained from the linear array with different orientations, as well as in the division of the soil rock interface. When conducting microtremor exploration, double circular array should be prioritized, cross shaped array should be used depending on the situation, and linear array should be used with caution.
ZHANG Zhihong, HOU Zuoliang, YANG Shichao, LI Mengying, HUANG Mingwei
Using a combined method of audio-frequency magnetotellurics(AMT) and high-density resistivity, resistivity observations were conducted in the deep well of Xinchengzi, Liaoning, to investigate the distribution of underground electrical structures. Through detailed exploration, critical parameters such as the spatial location, range, and morphology of the aquifer zone were delineated, providing valuable references for the selection and design of multi-pole distance multi-layer earth resistivity sites.