Abstract：Applying selforganized theory of complex dynamics system, we have synthetically studied the observational results of presentday crustal movement from contemporary geodesy（GPS and earthquake crustal deformation）in recent 40 years.Because of “fixed point attractor”,“limit cycle attractor”,“tons attractor” and “strange attractor” dominating the dynamics system，presentday crustal movement presents the various dynamics states such as “stable state（dynamic balancing state）”, “period state”, “quasiperiod state”, “chaos state” and “edge of chaos”. The observation results show that not only plate，block，boundary zone，fault zone but also speed field，stress field all over present the accordance of presentday crustal movement in several years or tens scales with those in neotectonics of million year scales as a whole.After transient state process（earthquake, etc）having occurred，presentday crustal movement（ the changing process with time，the space distribution and the structure of spectrum）will return to “stable steady state（dynamic balancing state）” voluntarily.The observation results prove that the“fixed point attractor ” exists really and it keeps the crustal movement system at “stable steady state” （dynamic balancing state）， “selforganized stability”. But Selforganized criticality( SOC) is a kind of weak chaos nature: “edge of chaos”（nonstable steady state），appearing only in the specific spacetime region in specific stage at self organization process of crustal movement.
Zhou Shuoyu,Wu Yun,Shi Shunying et al. ON BASIC STATE OF PRESENT-DAY CRUSTAL MOVEMENT DYNAMICS AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY[J]. jgg, 2007, 27(4): 92-99.
