Abstract:Earthquake prediction is a worldwide scientific problem with high complexity. Guided by the problems in our country’s practice for more than 50 years, relying on the natural phenomena revealed by it, from the perspective of philosophy of science and methodology, we review the methods of empirical induction, reductionist dynamics, induction-deduction and complex dynamic systems. The important role of epistemological factors in prediction is discussed through the examples of the Wenchuan and Tangshan earthquakes. In the new era of earth system science, it is suggested that the evolution of complex dynamic systems of continental deformation and seismic behavior, and that image (pattern) dynamics of bridges for empirical and numerical prediction be taken as the natural view and methodology of earthquake prediction. Although imperfect, it is closer to nature’s holistic, evolutionary and non-linear nature, and can contain and connect various ideas and methods. It is both forward-looking and operable. Earthquakes are predictable and uncertain. There is still considerable room for innovation in forecasting, prediction and disaster mitigation.
ZHOU Shuoyu,JIANG Zaisen,SHEN Chongyang et al. Research into Philosophy of Science and Methodology on Earthquake Prediction: Looking Back over 50 Years and Looking Forward[J]. jgg, 2019, 39(7): 661-676.