Abstract：We analyze the relationship between fault H2 concentration and air temperature and air pressure to obtain a regression equation using correlation and regression analysis methods. Through the R-value grading method, we test the earthquake prediction capability of fault H2 concentration regression residuals. The results show that: 1) Air temperature is the main influence factor of fault H2 concentration change in Aksu with high positive correlation. Air pressure has little effect on fault H2 concentration variation in Aksu with low-medium degree negative correlation. 2) The regression residual R value of fault H2 concentration is 0.690 7, and the earthquake prediction capability is good. The mean corresponding period of M5 earthquake prediction is 23 d. The dominant seismogenic zone is the western section of southern Tianshan.