Abstract:To improve the detection accuracy of the ionospheric total electronic content (TEC) anomaly, we propose ARMA model to modify the predicted data to obtain the TEC reference background value. The TEC anomaly detection before the earthquake is realized by setting the threshold of relative error and absolute error restricting each other. We analyze the 2016-01-21 Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake to verify the validity of the method. The results show that there are obvious TEC anomalies at 5 days prior to earthquake. The ionospheric anomaly area with concentrated range is formed in the epicenter and nearby areas. The maximum TEC anomalies appear at the south of the epicenter. Meanwhile, the TEC anomaly areas are not consistent with the epicenter, which locates east of the negative anomaly area or south of the positive anomaly area.
LI Lei,ZHANG Ning,YIN Shuhui et al. ARMA Residual Correction Model for Detecting Ionospheric TEC Anomalies before Menyuan MS6.4 Earthquake[J]. jgg, 2021, 41(4): 382-386.