Abstract：Taking the Qinghai Gashari superlarge landslide as an example, we use the transfer coefficient method to carry out the conventional analysis of landslide stability, and then using cusp mutation analysis and BAS-NARX-ARIMA model, we carry out the corroborative evaluation and development trend analysis of landslide stability. The analysis shows: 1) In the stability analysis results of the transfer coefficient method, the stability coefficient Fs of the main sliding surface under three working conditions ranges from 1.148 to 1.697, which is basically stable to stable; 2) The cusp mutation analysis shows that the Δ values of each monitoring point are greater than 0 and they are in a stable state, proving the accuracy of the above conventional stability calculation results. However, there are certain differences in the degree of stability at different locations; 3) The BAS-NARX-ARIMA model has good robustness and prediction effect in predicting of landslide deformation. According to the extrapolation prediction results, the landslide stability tends to weaken over time. We suggest that it is necessary to take practical measures to avoid disaster losses.