Abstract：We use the double difference method to accurately locate small and medium-sized earthquakes in the Taiyuan Basin and establish the sub-area of hidden faults in Taiyuan basin. By using the magnitude frequency relationship model reduced by a certain time scale, we fit the empirical evaluation model between the maximum earthquake magnitude Mmax of the hidden fault in Taiyuan basin and the magnitude frequency relationship at/b parameter. After comprehensive analysis, we give the upper limit prediction value of potential magnitude of each active fault zone. To predict the probability of occurrence of potential maximum earthquake magnitudes and moderate-strong earthquake magnitudes for each hidden active fault, we use the Poisson probability model. The results indicate that the Tianzhuang-Wenshui-Fenyang fault area in the central and western parts of the basin, as well as the Sanjia-Hongshan-Pingyao fault area in the southeastern part of the basin, have a higher probability of future earthquakes with MS≥6.5, while the probability level of earthquakes with MS≥6.0 occurring in the future in the Qizishan and Beitian-Wanghu fault areas, mainly composed of NW trending hidden active faults, is relatively low.