Abstract：We use the catalog of modern earthquakes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1980 to 2022 as a statistical sample. To grid the study area, we use the incompletely centralized Voronoi segmentation method based on spatial segmentation. Based on the Poisson model, the probability model of earthquake risk is established, and we conduct the probability prediction of small and medium earthquakes at the medium-term scale of the study area. The results show that the calculated probability of relatively high value region has a certain correlation with the occurrence of earthquakes with MS≥3.0, which can provide a reference for medium and long term earthquake prediction.
