Abstract：The Taiyuan basin is divided into four sections: the TaiyuanWenshui area and the Fenyang area, the Taigu area and the JiexiuPingyao area. The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Taiyuan basin is analysed, with realtime probability model, the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for above each section. The probability of earthquake occurrence in the TaiyuanWenshui area, the Taigu area in the next 50 years are 7.1%，15%，in the next 100 years are 13.9%，27.8%, while the Fenyang and the Taigu areas have very low possibility of earthquake larger than magnitude 7.
